Would the Next Major Crisis Hold Also ‘Opportunities’ for Transformational Change in Europe’s Economy? And What Role Do Climate Impacts Play in This?

PlanAdapt, in collaboration with Global Climate Forum, conducts a study on near term climate impacts with significant economic risks for the EU and the global economy. The study is embedded in a project by Finance Watch Deutschland and Heinrich-Böll-Foundation that examines ‘transformative responses to the next crisis’. The overall project aims at developing scenarios for future economic and financial crisis and creating policy proposals that transform our economic system towards sustainable economies.

PlanAdapt, together with Global Climate Forum, will identify direct physical climate impacts in the EU as well as indirect transboundary climate impacts.

Given the reality of globalisation, climate risk is in many cases “borderless” in nature. Climate impacts in one country will create risks and opportunities in other countries, due to cross-border connectivity within regions and globally.

Climate change impacts cross national borders via at least four climate risk pathways:

  • trade, by disrupting the price, quality and availability of goods and services on international markets and supply chains;
  • biophysical, by altering the flows in transboundary ecosystems, including river basins, arid lands, oceans and air currents;
  • people, through changes in the flow of international tourists and migrants; and
  • finance, where climate events and gradual changes alter the return on overseas investments and remittance flows.

One of the key outputs will be a set of plausible scenarios and narratives on how climate impacts may trigger significant levels of economic crisis in the EU.